Archive - Red Line

State of Open-Source AI, 2025

The Brief: China ↑; US ↓; SLM/LLM ↑; open source ↓; open weight ↑; non-industry developers ↑; industry developers ↓

Dec 4, 2025 • Arwen Smit

November 2025

The Genesis Mission and the Rise of Sovereign AI

The Brief: Genesis is an inter-generational message of hope for the US public, with national security as the immediate beneficiary.

Nov 27, 2025 • Arwen Smit

Stop asking bad questions on AI risk

The Brief: Why bad questions drive bad outcomes—and why no country can ‘win’ AI

Nov 21, 2025 • Arwen Smit

When China Consumes the Future

The Brief: How rising domestic demand for rare earths could erode US competitiveness across the AI stack

Nov 13, 2025 • Arwen Smit

US compute diplomacy: AI diffusion via UAE infrastructure

The Brief: Friends of my friends are my enemies

Nov 6, 2025 • Arwen Smit

Introducing Red Line

A new approach to frontier risk and foresight

Nov 6, 2025 • Red Line and Arwen Smit

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